Friday, January 20, 2012

Prospect Busts and Booms: Billy Beane vs. Brandon Nimmo

Bleacher Report has a post on the ten biggest prospect busts in New York Mets history. They are:

10. Jason Isringhausen
9. Jason Tyner
8. Alex Ochoa
7. Alex Escobar
6. Fernando Martinez
5. Ryan Thompson
4. Lastings Milledge
3. Shawn Abner
2. Bill Pulsipher
1. Paul Wilson


One observation I made was aside from Shawn Abner all of the busts were from the 1990's or 2000's. Another broader observation is this explains how much more difficult it is to project baseball players compared to football or basketball. For me, looking at the list of New York Mets first-round draft picks, the name that stands out is the Mets first-round pick in 1980, Billy Beane.

If you read the book "Moneyball", you probably read about Beane's reaction to his minor league teammate Lenny Dykstra, a 13th round pick in 1981, talk about how certain he was about making the major leagues someday, whereas Beane, a first round pick, was questioning whether or not he belonged in professional baseball altogether.

So much of baseball is psychological that evaluating a player's mental makeup is perhaps as critical as his physical abilities. That's why I'm so optimistic on Brandon Nimmo. Let's hope I'm right on him.

No comments: