Friday, December 9, 2011

Baseball Prospectus | Baseball ProGUESTus: Sunset in Flushing

A great analysis on where the Mets stand as an organization right now. This part caught my attention:

"The hitting side of their system is a hodge-podge of filler and risky players with potential. The 2011 class, led by Brandon Nimmo, was very heavy on high-upside, high-school talents, most of whom made only token appearances in rookie ball after signing. It will be years before the Mets can evaluate whether they have any keepers in that lot. They have toolsy hitters Wilmer Flores and Cesar Puello several levels up in A-ball, but neither has converted his tools into skills yet. The most polished position prospects in the system are center fielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis and second baseman Reese Havens, both of whom missed much of 2011 with injuries. Havens cannot stay healthy, averaging only 63 games played in his three professional seasons, and Nieuwenhuis’s ultimate future may lie in a corner instead of center. Both will get their shot; with Angel Pagan gone to San Francisco and Ruben Tejada moving over to shortstop, center field and second base could be open on the major-league team as early as spring training. But these players don’t have the high ceilings of their pitching counterparts. New York doesn’t have any cornerstone prospects who play the field; the next Jose Reyes or Carlos Beltran isn't waiting in Double-A. Those guys the Mets will have to go out and get."

For what it's worth, my guess is by the end of 2012, Nieuwenhuis is the starting centerfielder with Andres Torres serving as a capable 4th outfielder, Daniel Murphy will be manning 3B for an American League team, and either Reese Havens or Jordany Valdespin will be the starting 2B, depending on Havens' health in 2012. Let's wait and see what happens.

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