Thursday, December 1, 2011

Balanced Baseball Leagues...what about schedules?

I wrote back in 2009 that a solution to improve Interleague play would be to balance the leagues with 15 teams each. I doubt the powers-that-be at Major League Baseball read my blog post on this but they seem to have done the same thing with the move of the Houston Astros to the American League West in 2013.

One thing I left open in my 2009 post was how the opponents outside of the strength-of-schedule method that I proposed would be selected. My solution: starting with the team with the worst record, select the nearest opponent that is not already scheduled until all of the teams are scheduled. Then, also beginning with the team with the worst record, schedule the three games against the teams with the best record at home, leaving the other three as road games. As the home/road splits get assigned, things start to shake out where everyone gets equitably scheduled.

If this seems a bit random and arbitrary, it's meant to be. Considering that baseball schedules cannot be determined until two years in advance (unlike at the end of the regular season like the NFL), it wouldn't be a huge impediment if, say, Baltimore played Philadelphia more often than other teams because there is not telling where those teams will be two years from now (okay, maybe Baltimore and Philly are bad examples but who would have thought Arizona would go from worst-to-first while Minnesota and San Diego both went first-to-worst in one season?)

I went through this exercise for all of the teams based on the final records of the 2010 and 2011 seasons (because this is how I enjoy spending my free time) and here's a sample of what I came up with:

- The Mets would play six games against the Yankees as a "regional rival". They would also have played, based on the 2010 schedule, Toronto and Seattle at home and Boston and Kansas City on the road. Based on 2011, the schedule in addition to the Yankees would be Houston and Baltimore at home, Toronto and Cleveland on the road.

- Pittsburgh had the worst record in MLB in 2010 and ended up with Detroit, Toronto, and Cleveland at home and Baltimore, Kansas City, and Seattle on the road.

- Houston had the worst record in MLB in 2011 and ended up with Arizona, Colorado, and St. Louis at home and Miami, Chicago, and San Diego on the road.

- Philadelphia had the best record in MLB in both years and ended up with (based on 2010) Baltimore, Minnesota, and Toronto at home, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Texas on the road; and (based on 2011) Toronto, Boston, and Baltimore at home, and the Yankees, Detroit, and Texas on the road.


Definitely enough variety there to make the scheduling interesting but also increasing local/regional fan interest by ensuring that teams closest to each other have the best chance to play each other more often.

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