The limits of misplaced optimism...

I have to admit, as a die hard Met fan, I'm a sucker for Rich Coutinho's rosy projections for how things will work out for the Amazins. However, this one is a little too optimistic even for me.

Coutinho: Never Count Out Mets’ Johan Santana « CBS New York

The very first domino in the 2012 New York Mets season will be what the Mets get from Johan Santana. As the often optimistic Rich Coutinho points out, you never know in the game of baseball:

"Nobody expected the Arizona Diamondbacks to rebound from a 90 loss season to win the NL West. Nobody expected the last two World Champions to be squads with under a $100 million payroll. No one expected an AL East team not to be in the World Series the last two years. It is the reason we play the games and it is the reason sports is such great theater."

A lot has been said about how long it took for Chien-Ming Wang to return and that Mark Prior never returned from the same surgery. However, Prior was a hard thrower and Wang, although not a strikeout guy, made a living on a hard sinker. Santana's bread-and-butter has been the change-up, a pitch that doesn't require aggressive arm and shoulder movement. I would expect the recovery to be less involved, not to mention that additional knowledge gained from the Prior and Wang experiences for trainers to adjust accordingly.

New York Mets Do Wright Thing, Plan To Move Fences In At Citi Field | Rich Coutinho « CBS New York

WFAN's Rich Coutinho gives yet another explanation as to why it makes sense to move in the fences at Citi Field:

"Players talk to other players. I firmly believe most major leaguers knew the Mets were spooked by this park. If for no other reason than they were spooked by it as well. I remember Alex Rodriguez looking out at a screaming line drive he hit to left-center and appearing shocked when it did not leave the yard. And so the baseball world knew what a player would be up against offensively if he came to call Citi Field home."

I remember watching that game this season and as much as I enjoyed the look on A-Rod's face when he went into his home run trot only to watch the ball hit high off the wall and force him to hustle it to second base. However, the Yankees were only there for a three-game series and once the weekend was over A-Rod was going back to his little league ballpark in the Bronx to hit 40+ homers on a bunch of half swings again.

Coutinho: Here’s Why Jose Reyes Will Stay With The Mets

This is good news. Best of all, the numbers look like they'll add up too:

"The Mets’ payroll at the start of 2011 was around $142 million, with many high ticket items coming off the 2012 payroll, including:

Luis Castillo, $6.25 million
Ollie Perez, $12 million
Carlos Beltran, $20.7 million
Jose Reyes, $11 million (we will add his new numbers in later)
Gary Matthews Jr., $1 million (yes, that Gary Matthews — maybe his dad should pipe down)

To date, New York has $66 million committed to contracts in 2012. They include:

Johan Santana, $21 million
Jason Bay, $18.1 million
David Wright, $15.2 million
R.A. Dickey, $4.75 million
D.J. Carrasco, $1.2 million"

Rich Coutinho adds later on:

"So to summarize:

$10 million for retaining arbitration eligible players
$66 million for committed contracts
$9 million For players under Mets’ control
$7 million for incumbent free agents aside from Reyes

That totals $92 million in estimated cost.

I think that’s high because it is assuming the Mets will keep all three arbitration-eligible players. Now, their payroll is likely to sit at $125-130 million, which would be $10-15 million less than last year. That means they would have anywhere from $33-38 million left to sign Reyes and spend on other players."

Coutinho: Top 5 Questions Mets Need To Answer In Next 6 Weeks

Things to watch for and think about over the next six weeks of the regular season...

"Chavez, great speed; Reyes, great speed; LoDuca, good guy."

Rich Coutinho makes a great case for the Mets batting Josh Thole 2nd in the lineup. Not a bad idea, considering the Jose Reyes/Paul LoDuca duo at the top of the lineup in 2006. The only thing I would disagree with is Coutinho suggests moving Pagan back to the #2 spot when Jason Bay returns. I'm not entirely sure that would be a good idea, especially if Thole is performing in the two-hole.

In other New York Mets news, great column by Steve Popper in The Bergen Record about David Wright taking more of a leadership role on the team. He also mentions the game of catch with the Braves fans before Sunday's game.

By the way, does anyone remember that Howie Rose quote that I used for the title of this post?